Forecasting Female Nuptiality Of Rural Population Of Uttar Pradesh, India: A Time-Series Approach

Nuptiality has a strong association with socio demographic and economical change in society. So, it has immense importance to study the female age at marriage in society. In rural India, mostly marriages take place at early ages. In this study, we forecast mean age at marriage for the period 2001 to 2020 based on the observed data 1931-2000. After checking the stationary of the data, it is found that ARIMA (1, 1, 1) best fitted to our data. It is observed that as time increases, mean age at marriage is also increasing. Same evidence is supported by the corresponding figure.