Statistical Downscaling Of Minimum Temperature Of Hoshangabad (M.P.) India

Research Article
Balvanshi, A and Tiwari, H.L
DOI: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.24327/ijrsr.2018.0905.2200
Subject: 
science
KeyWords: 
General Circulation Model, CGCM3, CanESM2, Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency, Coefficient of Determination.
Abstract: 

General Circulation Models (GCMs), CGCM3 and CanESM2 have been used to downscale the minimum temperature for Hoshangabad region, Madhya Pradesh, India. The region encompasses an area of 6704 km2 . The predictor variables for CGCM3 were ncepmslpas, ncepp500gl, ncepp850gl and predictor variables for CanESM2 model were ncepmslpgl, ncepp500gl, ncepp850gl. The total period of study was from the years 1979 - 2001. The two GCMs, CGCM3 and CanESM2 were checked for their capability in downscaling the minimum temperature climatic parameter. The GCM outputs were evaluated on Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (r2 ) criterias. The period of calibration was taken to be 1979-1995 and 1996-2001 was chosen as the period of validation. GCM CanESM2 obtained NSE of 0.82, 0.84 and r2 of 0.88, 0.88 during the periods of calibration and validation respectively. It was concluded that CanESM2 model is found comparatively more suitable for downscaling of minimum temperature for Hoshangabad region. The GCM can be further employed to generate the future scenario of minimum temperature in the region.